Risk Assessments

Determining the Basis for Simulation-Based Accident Risk Assessments

Copyright: © ISAC

Accident risk estimation is an important task in the context of infrastructure planning, which is nowadays performed with the help of statistical models. However, this group of models cannot make reliable predictions depending on dynamic traffic flow conditions.

The present research proposal aims at establishing a basis for analytical modeling in order to enable simulation-based estimation of accident risk in the future. For this purpose, existing traffic flow models are to be extended by inhomogeneous, dynamic traffic conditions. The driver behavior responsible for the inhomogeneous traffic conditions must be investigated in a further step.

For this purpose, a suitable mathematical model has to be formulated macroscopically and transformed into a microscopic system by discretization. Subsequently, the behavioral parameters of the drivers in dynamic traffic conditions in real traffic and in laboratory experiments in the driving simulator are identified correctly and the developed models are calibrated and validated accordingly.

The work is expected to make a significant contribution to mathematical traffic modeling. Based on the results, risk-based decision models for individual vehicle guidance or collective traffic control can be developed in the future.